That is why the behavior that we have been witnessing from investors during the first two quarters of is so alarming. Worse, events are coalescing such that several potential crises—all major on their own—could strike at the same time, and not too long from now. Alas, with Republicans at the helm, deficits are set to continue racing upwards, apparently without end. I can see this coin ranking in the top 5 in the very near future and yes, we could all get rich if we invest in the project and support this young man and his team. A change of two seats in favor of the Democrats will give Democrats control of the Senate under the leadership of Chuck Schumer of New York.
With a further fall this week, the Dow is now down 2, points in October which certainly confirms that the bull is seriously injured, maybe fatally? The level of panic that we witnessed on Wall Street on Wednesday was breathtaking. After a promising start to the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average started plunging, and at the close it was down another points.
Since peaking at 26, But things are even worse when we look at the Nasdaq. The Senate is currently divided between 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats including two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. A change of two seats in favor of the Democrats will give Democrats control of the Senate under the leadership of Chuck Schumer of New York.
Of the Senate seats, 35 are up for election in Those 35 Senate seats are currently divided among 24 Democrats, two Independents who caucus with Democrats and nine Republicans. Simply put, the Democrats have more turf to defend and potentially more to lose. Last week I warned investors again, in the strongest tone possible, of the risks in markets. So what triggered it? Or was it the trade war with China? Or maybe it was Kavanaugh?
Nor do we know what will cause a turn in markets. But what we have known for quite some time is that markets have been extremely vulnerable to a turn. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya. I am certain of death. I am certain of taxes. And, I am certain of tax reform. Sorry, that was an old tax attorney joke. However, non-linear financial markets never lend themselves to certainty.
Rather, the best we can do is look for clues that provide us with high-probability perspectives. That is what I use Elliott Wave analysis to do, in addition to supporting sentiment readings. One of the noted indications that a major top is being struck is when formerly bearish analysts and market participants begin to suggest buying the dip. And, amazingly, analysts that I have watched be consistently bearish for at least the last three years are now providing us with reasons as to why we should be buying this dip.
Please, can we get some bad economic news? Is that too much to ask? That's not too much ask, it's just really dumb to ask for it. Nevertheless, we have heard it asserted in the face of the recent sell-off that bad economic news would be good news for the stock market.
Why would that be? The assumption is that bad economic news would get the Federal Reserve off the stock market's back and help tamp down the concerns about rising interest rates that precipitated the sell-off. IMF sounds dire warning William Pesek.
Massive government debts and eroded fiscal buffers since suggest global dominos await a single market crash. It would be easier to dismiss these words from Nouriel Roubini, Marc Faber or other doom-and-gloom prognosticators.
But the systemic cracks we've been closely monitoring definitely got an awful lot wider this week. After nearly a decade of endless market boosting, manipulation and regulatory neglect, all of the trading professionals I personally know are watching with held breath at this stage. Towards the end of economic expansions, interest rates usually start to rise as strong loan demand bumps up against central bank tightening. But eventually rising rates begin to bite and borrowers get skittish, throwing the leverage machine into reverse and producing an equities bear market and Main Street recession.
Stock markets around the world were crushed yesterday…. The Dow Jones fell points, its biggest dump since February. The risk remains that dollar credit will seize up globally, with disastrous consequences for countries that have to borrow dollars to cover deficits. The cure for the last crisis always turns into the cause of the next one. Europeans and Japanese pay to hold cash or own year German government bonds, which means that every pension fund and insurer will fold in a finite time horizon.
They responded by exporting more, saving more, and buying American assets that still pay a positive, if low, real yield. The buildings are all monumental, graceless, and blockish. For years, the city has attracted young people from all over. It has some of the cheapest apartments in Europe and a lively, bohemian art scene.
It also has a generous social welfare system that makes it easy to live here with relatively little money. Is Ron Paul about to be proven right once again? For a very long time, Ron Paul has been one of my political heroes. He was one of the few members of Congress that actually understood economics, and it is very sad that he has now retired from politics. With the enormous mess that Washington D. A financial storm is brewing Alasdair Macleod. This week, gold rose slightly on balance, while silver maintained its climb out of a deep pit.
For fiat currencies, things are hotting up. US Treasury yields going through the roof, illustrated by this immensely bearish chart of the year US Treasury bond yield.
Could this be a sign that big trouble is on the horizon for the stock market? It seems like bonds have been in a bull market forever, but now suddenly bond yields are spiking to alarmingly high levels. On Wednesday, the yield on 30 year U. Last Friday, I discussed that without much fanfare or public discussion, Congress decided to push the U. The bill passed by , a week after the Senate passed an identical measure by a vote of A decade after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, global debt levels are higher than in , lending has moved into the opaque realm of asset management and private equity, and the dollar is surging.
Given the proliferating risks, another financial crisis and downturn could be in store. Just as the magnitude of the global downturn that began in mid took most economists completely by surprise, so did the sclerotic nature of the recovery.
Similarly, economic forecasts appear to be nothing more than hopeful extrapolations of recent growth. While life has always been uncertain, today our choices matter more than ever.
The decisions each of us make today will determine if we thrive, merely survive, or fail during the future time of upheaval ahead. The window of opportunity to change course for humanity is all but closed. The pieces have been moving into place for months now. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has seen her power within German political circles wane for more than a year.
The Fed keeps raising rates to arrest inflation not supported by increased wages. Brexit talks are at a standstill. In the 9th largest economy in the world, the financial markets are crashing, and in the 21st largest economy in the world the central bank just raised interest rates to 65 percent to support a currency that is completely imploding.
Whilethe mainstream media in the United States continues to be obsessed with all things Kavanaugh, an international financial crisis threatens to spiral out of control. Stock prices are falling and currencies are collapsing all over the planet, but because the U. But the truth is that this is serious.
The financial crisis in Italy threatens to literally tear the EU apart, and South America has become an economic horror show. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39, employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal.
Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? What were you thinking? In late , the bad economic news just keeps rolling in. At a time when consumer confidence is absolutely soaring, the underlying economic numbers are clearly telling us that enormous problems are right around the corner. Of course this is usually what happens just before a major economic downturn. Since then, news after news has come out showing that the housing market is faltering.
According to the government, U. GDP gross domestic product —a broad measure of economic growth—rose by 4. Unemployment is at its lowest level in 18 years. And jobless claims are at a year low. This is great news for everyday Americans. The question is… how much longer can the U.
The satan-worshipping Khazarian mafia is in a frenzy of fear as military tribunals loom. As a result, they are offering the world as if it were theirs to give to China in exchange for protection, according to Gnostic Illuminati and Asian secret society sources. In addition to this, they are threatening to unleash pandemics, blow up the Yellowstone Caldera, set off a massive EMP attack, and cause other mayhem in a futile effort as these attempts will be neutralized to blackmail themselves out of the reach of long-delayed justice.
Also, they are carrying out a foolish and widely derided smear campaign to derail the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.
Previews of the coming reckoning. And now, more than 3, days into the current bull market, the longest in history, we can say with high confidence we are very close to its end. For manifold reasons that are multiplying fast. We are following the road to perdition. There is increasing awareness that another financial crisis is in the offing, and, of course, everyone has an opinion as to what will trigger it and what form it will take. But there is broad agreement that since the Lehman crisis ten years ago, instead of resolving the problems that led to that crisis, governments and their monetary authorities have allowed the underlying position to deteriorate.
The primary reason why stock prices have been soaring in recent months is because corporations have been buying back their own stock at an unprecedented pace. In fact, the pace of stock buybacks is nearly double what it was at this time last year. That is an absolutely astounding number.
And in many cases, corporations are going deep into debt in order to do this. Of course this is going to push up stock prices, but corporate America will not be able to inflate this bubble indefinitely. At some point a credit crunch will come, and the pace of stock buybacks will fall precipitously. We poke a lot of fun at the MANY absurdities we see in this current bubble. Stock, bonds and real estate are at or near record highs. Politicians and public servants no longer retire to their hamlets and farms once their tour of duty is over.
Instead, they sign up for a post-career money-grab as consultants and lobbyists… scheming with the feds to get favors for their clients. After 10 years of unprecedented goosing, some of the real economy is finally overheating: Financial assets have been goosed to record highs in the everything bubble. Beneath the surface, the frantic goosing has planted seeds of financial crisis which have sprouted and are about to blossom with devastating effect. There are two related systems-level concepts which illuminate the coming crisis: My friend Jeff called me and told me to turn on the television—where I saw dozens of people on the streets of Manhattan filing out of a skyscraper carrying boxes full of their office junk.
They were all employees of Lehman Brothers, one of the largest investment banks in the world. Lehman was hours away from filing bankruptcy in what would go down as THE biggest bankruptcy in US history.
The great financial catastrophe of our times is still badly misunderstood, and led to grotesque consequences, including the election of Donald Trump. The New York Federal Reserve was a zoo. Imagine NASA headquarters on the day a giant asteroid careens into the atmosphere. That was the New York Fed: Did you know you can blow a bubble within a bubble? And when another crash occurs, this dual-bubble scenario could make it harder to get out before other investors. Even though summer technically lasts until Sept.
This is the last emerging market crisis story for a while, promise. What are the warning signs? What might it look like? How will markets react? The nearly decade-long U. Economic expansions need a catalyst that triggers a downward spiral of consumer and business retrenchment. Add trade tensions and geo-political uncertainties, which may work to slow global growth, and it seems like the current situation has the potential to trigger a recession. September is known to be a rough month for the market.
An already weary market is starting to show increased concern. Members of the American libertarian movement, particularly extremist preppers, are often associated with a belief that a complete breakdown in society is the only outcome from government economic policies and will lead to complete social disintegration.
At the centre of their concerns is monetary destruction, with other issues, such as the erosion of personal freedom and the right to bear arms, important but peripheral. They cite history, particularly the hyperinflationary collapses, from Rome to Zimbabwe, and now Venezuela. They draw on Austrian economic theory, which fans their dislike of government and their expectation of total chaos.
It is the best time of year here in France. The sun has cooled. The days are shorter; the nights are still and clear. The leaves turn yellow and drift to the ground, a few at first… and then, many. Stirred to life by the occasional breeze, they gather in corners and cover the drains.
And over everything hangs an air of languid grace… like a beautiful corpse an undertaker. From elections to media to the markets, it's all controlled. Crop failures have hit hard across Europe. Australia is under an intense drought. Coral reefs are dying through mass bleachings. The stocks of ocean fisheries are in deep trouble. Insect and bird populations remain in a state of collapse. It couldn't be any more clear that our society's demands for ever-more "growth" are taking an increasingly dangerous toll.
Many people think farmers have enviable lives. If you're a farmer, however, you may think otherwise. You work non-stop for very little money. Sometimes you feel like a prisoner to your buyers, and occasionally you wonder how much longer you can keep going.
The weather seems to be against you, and you feel like you are working for nothing. Though small farmers believe their lives are far from ideal, I can't think of any farmer who would switch to a life in the city. So how do you get the best of both worlds? How can you maximize profit from your land, small farm or homestead?
You don't have to stop at growing crops. Companies in the U. This is more corporate debt than , just before the last major recession. Lost in the largely meaningless political Kabuki theatre being staged on Capitol Hill is the fact that the economy is deteriorating. Real average weekly earnings in July declined for production and non-supervisory workers.
It was down 0. For all employees, real average hourly earnings declined 0. Housing data has been miserable. It is entirely a function of massive central bank liquidity injections into the financial system that have transformed Wall Street and other global trading venues into virtual gambling casinos. After all, to use the latest evidence, what could be more indicative of a political system fixing to implode than this weekend's utterly phony and disgustingly undeserved deification of the late Senator John McCain?
Unfortunately, since the stock market has been soaring and the GDP numbers look okay, most Americans assume that the U. But the stock market was soaring and the GDP numbers looked okay just prior to the great financial crisis of as well, and we saw how that turned out. The truth is that GDP is not the best measure for the health of the economy. Here is the result of America's neofeudalism: Let's spin the time machine back to the late Middle Ages, at the height of feudalism, and imagine we're trying to get a boatload of goods to the nearest city to sell.
As we drift down the river, we're constantly being stopped and charged a fee for transiting one small fiefdom after another. When we finally reach the city, there's an entry fee for bringing our goods to market. Yesterday the US stock market broke the all-time record for the longest bull market ever.
We will keep this short and to the point. As time goes by, you will come to know all the ingredients to the fact that economic law lives and is in the process of reasserting itself like a hot solar storm on the surface of the sun. MOPE has failed and the world is about to implode economically and socially because of it. Your question to all of us has been when will all this happen. The answer is now. The means to this occurrence is accelerating uncontrollable volatility in the world fiat currency markets.
This can be easily understood by remembering that the currency you borrow will fluctuate. If that movement is up, then you are at a loss considering where it was trading when your borrowed it. There are huge quantities of footloose dollars betting against these weak currencies, as well as commodities and gold, on the basis the long-expected squeeze on dollar liquidity is finally upon us.
This article points out that foreign financial entities as a whole already possess most of the excess liquidity created by monetary expansion of the dollar since the Lehman crisis. Sometimes, a strongly-worded denial is the most damning evidence of all that something is seriously wrong. Of course we witnessed precisely the same thing just prior to the great financial crisis of Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke insisted that a recession was not coming, and we proceeded to plunge into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.
Is our society experiencing a similar state of denial about what is ahead of us here in ? The transportation sector is a reflection of the goods-based economy in the US. Demand has been blistering across all modes of transportation.
This pushed the index, which is not seasonally adjusted, to its highest level for July since The Anatomy of a Crisis: Wondering when the mainstream would start to realize that the stronger the dollar gets — the more pressure global economies will feel.
And this is particularly the case for excess dollar-liquidity in the Emerging Markets EMs. Global debt has ballooned since the financial crisis as central banks have distorted markets and fueled debt bubbles in particular.
A lot of the increase in global debt has come from emerging market EM economies, especially China. In fact, a record amount of EM debt has accumulated during the past decade, mostly in dollars. A large portion of that debt is therefore denominated in U.
Borrowing is not a problem when dollars are cheap. Low interest rates mean the cost of servicing that debt is low. The trade war is beginning to take its toll on China as the Chinese economy is losing momentum. Beijing has pledged to increase small-business lending and increase infrastructure investment to help offset the impact. Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura Intl.
It takes several months to turn around. Beijing will step up credit easing and fiscal measures to deliver a recovery and prevent financial troubles such as a rise of bond defaults. How much debt-financed stimulus can it take? What is the opposite of a margin of safety? That is a question this market has had me asking myself for some time now. A margin of safety is a discount to intrinsic value that provides a safety net in the result of an error in analysis or unforeseen negative developments.
The opposite of a margin of safety then is a premium to intrinsic value than can vanish even if your analysis is correct or things go unexpectedly in your favor. The price has already discounted a perfect outcome. The housing industry is like a roller coaster. The housing crash left houses empty and people homeless.
Some neighborhoods are still littered with empty and decaying homes, some having stood empty going on 10 years now. Since the crash, there has been a lot of conversation, and demand, for more housing options. Engineers have discovered cheaper, more eco-friendly and sustainable housing options.
Why not use them? The social media giant reported that its user growth in the U. During the European debt crisis, this word was used constantly as traders worried that issues with Greece and Spain and Portugal would spread across Europe.
The catalyst that drove the Lira lower seemed to be a lack of government concern that investors are waiting for an outline of a new economic plan. There has been no subsequent major terrorist attack on America from Al Qaeda or its heirs. American troops are not committed en masse to any ground war. American workers are enjoying a blissful 4 percent unemployment rate. The investment class and humble k holders alike are beneficiaries of a rising GDP and booming stock market that, as measured by the Dow, is up some percent since its September 10, , close.
As noted by the BEA: Of course, we are frequently wrong about a great number of things. When connecting the dots, we are bound to draw a few stray lines. And we will no doubt be proven wrong in many of our opinions and predictions. And there is certainly something to this. Statistically speaking , these market generals have become increasingly important to the broad market indexes recently so it only stands to reason that an important reversal here could make for a more difficult equity environment in general.
As we pass from early summer into late summer today, stocks on all the major indices open the day on the slide. But what it does tell us is that stock valuations are more bloated than we have ever seen and that a stock market crash would make perfect sense.
Well, it is actually very simple to calculate. You just take the total market value of all stocks and divide it by the gross domestic product. While glowing presidential proclamations about US GDP growth last week did nothing to prevent the stock market from rushing headlong over the cusps of a FAANG stock ledge, the market is taking a breather today. Quite simply, I think stock investors looked at the surfacing of real problems in their favorite FAANG stocks and, so, failed this time to find any fun in the frivolous fiction of government factoids.
GDP reportage has been fake for years, and it is no less fake under Trump than under any other president. Fake is where you find it. You can find it as much on Fox as on CNN. The sheer magnitude of how much money there is in the world can be quite staggering—and hard to understand. What if you could visualize every market in the world as a bubble? Earlier this year the total U. But just how big are these numbers?
Can we get some perspective? And the dangerous thing about this kind of bubble popping is that the effects can last for decades. The trade war between the U. But that insistence may now be harboring new consequences. Thus, lessons learned through the pain of generations gone by often are quickly forgotten. We have very few people left worldwide who actually lived through the Great Depression. Yet, I would assume that I still have a better understanding of that time period than most of the people reading my words today.
Financial and precious metals expert Egon von Greyerz EvG vaults gold for clients at two secret locations on two continents. This business is not a business, it is a passion, and I have a passion to help the few people that see the risks. I think your best wealth preservation will be gold.
At some point, all hell will break loose. There is no question about it. It could be something very serious coming this autumn. The whole political system is fighting against Trump, and that is going to be tough, very tough. The markets are giving me the signal that things are going to turn in the autumn, and you can easily find a number of catalysts for this to happen.
Economic cracks big enough to drive a car industry into are opening up all over the globe. Trade gaps are opening up between major allies. Widening spreads between the dollar and other currencies are shredding emerging markets. Those tax cuts are also creating another rapidly rising gap between government revenue and government spending.
But this time, the underlying circumstances are different. Does it ever feel like the financial markets have become heavily intertwined with the current political arena? Where in many cases natural supply and demand have become irrelevant, and instead asset prices often revolve around the latest gossip about potential Fed or government actions.
With many feeling that gold and silver will be reset higher, while perhaps much of the global debt is somehow cancelled out keep in mind U.
The economies of the world are at an inflection point. Enough data points have now presented themselves to be able to see the outlines of a major shift in the markets of the world. We are at a pay attention moment. There comes a time when a successful investor must make some hard decisions to position himself to be able to take advantage of opportunities down the road. The markets are telling us now is such a moment. Market is trying to tell us.
A funny thing happened in the middle of one of Mike Maloney's deep-research sessions recently. It was time for something new, something more insightful, something more accurate. Other than the continual drama surrounding the Trump presidency, things have been quite calm for the past couple of years. We have been enjoying a time of peace, safety and relative economic prosperity that a lot of Americans have begun to take for granted. But great trouble has been brewing under the surface, and many are wondering if we are about to reach a major turning point.
The Dow Jones tumbled trade-warring points yesterday — and once again turned negative on the year. The mother of all credit crises is coming to China with over a quarter-trillion dollars owed by insolvent banks and state-owned enterprises, not to mention off-the-books liabilities of provincial governments, wealth management products and developers of white elephant infrastructure projects.
Before it collapsed, the city of Rome had a population greater than 1,, people. That was an extraordinary accomplishment in the ancient world, made possible by many innovative technologies and the organization of the greatest civilization that the world had ever seen. Such an incredible urban population depended on capital accumulated over centuries. But the Roman Empire squandered this capital, until it was no longer sufficient to sustain the city we are aware the story is more complicated than this.
After the collapse, the population fell to about 8, people. Some fled and arrived at safe places, but surely most perished.
Nothing is going to be the same after this. On Friday, the United States hit China with 34 billion dollars in tariffs, and China immediately responded with similar tariffs. If it stopped there, this trade war between the United States and China would not be catastrophic for the global economy. Donald Trump is already talking about hitting China with an additional billion dollars in tariffs, which would essentially cover pretty much everything that China exports to the U.
Several noted economists and distinguished investors are warning of a stock market crash. For example, former budget director for the Reagan White House, David Stockman recently raised a red flag when he declared an economic collapse is imminent. He went on to say: The world of finance and investment, as always, faces many uncertainties. The US economy is booming, say some, and others warn that money supply growth has slowed, raising fears of impending deflation.
We fret about the banks, with a well-known systemically-important European name in difficulties. We worry about the disintegration of the Eurozone, with record imbalances and a significant member, Italy, digging in its heels. We have not seen Wall Street this jumpy since just before the great financial crisis of As I have explained so many times before, when the waters are calm and there is low volatility, markets tend to go up. And when the waters are choppy and volatility starts to spike, markets tend to go down.
That is why the behavior that we have been witnessing from investors during the first two quarters of is so alarming. The Fourth of July is supposed to be celebrated as Independence Day—the day when the thirteen American colonies officially dissolved the political bands that connected them with Great Britain. We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do.
I would define the double cross as JPMorgan positioning itself so flawlessly so as to be nearly perfect in its execution, including the avoidance of any widespread knowledge of what has occurred. After all, a double cross always includes the element of surprise and this one promises to be a doozy. But the Fed prefers the personal consumption expenditures PCE price index, which tends to paint a less inflationary picture.
You can try to play down a trade war with China. You can brush off the impact of rising oil prices on corporate earnings. We have written numerous times before about how the East is preparing for a return to some form of a gold standard while the West tries to hang on to a dying system of debt based fiat currency.
Ironically it is not completely divided between East and West, as a few European governments have been hedging their bets by repatriating their gold from offshore over the past few years. In August — if the gods are kind — this bull market will become the longest in modern history. Today we go crystal-gazing… steal a forbidden glimpse of the future… and report a bizarre vision. The most significant event in monetary history since occurred last week. An event that threatens to upend the global balance of power, the economy of the world, and your portfolio.
To understand the significance of this event and the potential scale of its consequences, a little monetary history is in order. For at least years, gold and silver have been considered intrinsically valuable, and therefore have been used as a store of wealth and as money. Governments and societies throughout time have used actual silver or gold as their coined currencies. We wait for the world to fall apart. The Dow is still more than 1, points below its high; so we presume the primary trend is down.
So we presume the primary trend for bonds is down, too. Our working hypothesis is that General Eisenhower was right. Most sane individuals believe these basic truths.
The Federal Reserve bumped interest rates 0. Aiding and abetting each other and the publicly traded companies they do business with is a big part of the job. Murphy also included the District of Columbia in his research, and found it had a psychopathy level far higher than any other state. But still, fun to get some scientific confirmation. In other words, while cash instruments had yet to officially invert, the market had already priced this move in.
The west line theory states that the shipping center of the world moves in a westward direction slowly over the centuries. It started in the mid east and has moved west through the Mediterranean, Europe, North America and now sits over Asia. A shipping center usually implies a production center as well giving that area great wealth.
We now find ourselves on the back end of prosperity and all that it entails. We are not the first nation to find ourselves in this position. Those nations that came before us had to deal with a slower, smaller economy following the westward shift of the line.
We must now do so as well. Well, CoreLogic is way off. All American homes are overvalued. How can we tell? But we all know them: It has also lowered interest rates to near zero Kelvin. Beneath the surface signals of an eternally rising stock market and expanding GDP, we all sense something is deeply, systemically wrong with the U.
These nine structural dynamics generate secondary dynamics, all of which are toxic to social mobility, sustainable prosperity, accountability and democracy:. Financialization generates enormously asymmetric returns: Just as gravity propels the lava from Kilauea inexorably toward the sea, a mountain of public and private debt looms over today's markets.
Earlier this week, the Boards of Trustees for both U. Social Security and Medicare released their latest updates on the "solvency" of the programs. The advisories can be read here: Though it's common knowledge that these programs are vastly underfunded, the degree to which the pending crisis is accelerating should come as a shock to all Americans.
The propaganda is always laid on the heaviest just ahead of The Fall. The stock market seems to be on a bizarro perpetual escalator to neverending prosperity, despite rafts of economic fundamentals that paint a portrait of debt-bloated, weak economy, oceans of free debt have been available for years on end to fund lifestyles well beyond earned means, and so long as one has sufficient exposure to risk assets, why bother worrying about big-picture insolvencies that are still years away?
Medicare trust fund will run out of money in 8 years Simon Black. Two days ago the respective Boards of Trustees for Medicare and Social Security released their annual reports for As usual, the numbers are pretty gruesome The conventional economists assure us that energy is now a small part of the overall economy, so fluctuations in energy prices will have a limited effect on global prosperity.
Trying to trace the origins of the latest political crisis in Italy is like… well… trying to trace the origins of the decline of the Roman Empire. The main culprits responsible for these destabilizing and disruptive episodes have been governments and their central banks.
There is really nowhere else to point other than in their direction. Yet, to listen to some prominent and respected writers on these matters, government has been the stabilizer and free markets have been the disturber of economic order. First, you get a general sense of restlessness in the herd. Which makes them all more nervous. Which makes them more agitated. Then little pockets of cattle will start to lurch, move quickly, but not much, in one direction.
They all get skittish, trying to figure out if this is really going to happen or not. You can almost feel the heat rise as the stress levels rise. Each crisis is bigger than the one before. In complex dynamic systems such as capital markets, risk is an exponential function of system scale. Increasing market scale correlates with exponentially larger market collapses.
This means that the larger size of the system implies a future global liquidity crisis and market panic far larger than the Panic of Today, systemic risk is more dangerous than ever. Too-big-to-fail banks are bigger than ever, have a larger percentage of the total assets of the banking system and have much larger derivatives books. After a long spell of QE took mortgage interest down to the lowest it has ever been, a long spell of QT quantitative tightening is going to take it back up again.
Rising mortgage rates will certainly cause housing sales to fall. This might be one of those times, as instability in the Middle East, Europe, and parts of Latin America sends worried capital pouring into the US, pushing the dollar up from its recent lows: With average incomes in the U. Hmm, what would that mean for the Catalan politicians Rajoy is persecuting?
The Spanish political crisis is inextricably linked to the Italian one , not even because they are so much alike, but because both combine to create huge financial uncertainty in the eurozone. Sometimes it takes a little uproar to reveal the reality behind the curtain. Most of us are aware of the inflationary pressures in the major economies, that so far are proving somewhat latent in the non-financial sector.
But some central banks are on the alert as well, notably the Federal Reserve Board, which has taken the lead in trying to normalise interest rates. Others, such as the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are yet to be convinced that price inflation is a potential problem. Virtually no one in the central banks, government treasury departments, or independent analysts see the real inflationary danger.
Well, forget additional expenses. It turns out that nearly half of the families in America are struggling to pay for food and rent. Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed. Already, the amount of retail space that has shut down is simply jaw-dropping.
Let that number sink in for a bit. When Things Fall Apart: Heart Advice for Difficult Times. Those coming of age today will face some of the greatest obstacles ever encountered by young people. The global economy is now stranded as the central-bank tide runs out. After that, it runs net negative for years to come.
January turned out to be peak high tide on all the shores of the world. This moment is not just about leaving the Iran nuclear agreement, or even the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris climate agreement.
It is not simply attributable to the unpredictable, childish impulses of the current president. Sometimes it feels like the U. It seems like the U. And as a result, the country keeps running deficits and borrowing cheap money year after year. But now, as the U. Perhaps the real surprise is that it has taken as long as it has. Because while there has been demand on a sovereign level, especially from nations like China, India, and Russia, the general Wall Street opinion of the precious metals sector has not been favorable in recent years.
This is getting downright silly. While energy, housing, healthcare, and numerous other prices are exploding higher, the Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS somehow managed to claim that inflation only rose a measly 0. Yes, those two issues somehow eclipsed the rise in healthcare expenses, energy prices, housing prices, and even food prices.
Time To Choose Chris Martenson. Will you be an agent of depletion or regeneration? Your choice couldn't be more critically important. Quite possibly, the entire fate of the human species hangs in the balance. It's time to decide: For many centuries, humans have consumed the natural resources around them at a rate far faster than the planet can replenish. Until recently this didn't pose an existential problem, as fresh deposits could be tapped through the discovery of new continents or development of new technologies.
His name was Samuel Bernstein. And if you enjoy chocolate sprinkles or the hard, chocolate coating around ice cream bars, you can thank Bernstein— he invented them. Nearly years later, the company is still a family-owned business, producing some well-known brands like Peeps and Hot Tamales.
But business conditions in the Land of the Free have changed quite dramatically since Samuel Bernstein founded the company in Coyote Moment David Stockman. A fearsome bogeyman may be stalking the American economy….
But some have picked up its grisly scent… and discovered its approaching footprints. Today we investigate the reports… weigh the evidence… and hazard a judgment. BullionStar was one of the first bullion dealers worldwide to offer customers the ability to buy and sell physical precious metals using Bitcoin.
Now with the addition of Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin, BullionStar is again one of the first bullion dealers in the world to offer customers the ability to transact in these other leading cryptocurrencies for both buy and sell orders.
And on Wednesday afternoon, Tesla held its first corporate earnings call since then. I have tried to explain this concept many times before but never had a chart to do it with. Please note the start date of the chart is , this is not by any coincidence as that was the year the U. Before getting started, it is important to understand what August 15, really meant and why Nixon took us off the gold standard. The obvious is because with France and other nations demanding conversion of dollars into our gold, it would have only been a few short years before our stockpile was completely depleted.
The status quo, in all its various forms, is dominated by incentives that strengthen the centralization of wealth and power. Last year, the U. Some states tow the line by exporting one of the major U.
If I were the devil, I would desire the most efficient system of governance whereby maximum control could be exerted over the greatest amount of people at any given time. I would identify those who stood in my way and take them down either by force or subversion. There would be no room in my world for individuality, free thought, or vain imaginings of anything, or anyone, more powerful than me.
Throughout the summer, Bitcoins price started to soar and seemed to reach new highs on almost a daily basis. Even long-term Bitcoin enthusiasts were shocked at this price movement. Make no mistake, for better or for worse, Bitcoin has arrived in a big way and it has officially put the financial world on notice. And it has industrial uses. But let me first tell you why you should listen to me… Read More. Where have all the dip buyers gone?
The Dow Jones plunged another points yesterday… its fifth consecutive losing day. And it is only April. It Isn't Pretty Graham Summers. The ugly reality of inflation has begun to raise its head. That, in of itself, is a REAL problem for the debt-based financial system. More is revealed with each passing day. You can count on it. Or is it something of actual substance?
Today we endeavor to pass judgment, on your behalf. Normally, judgment would be passed on a Thursday, but we are making an exception. For example, here in the land of fruits and nuts, things are whacky, things are zany. These similar sounding monetary systems must be defined and the differences between them noted, for anyone to have the slimmest chance of understanding this vital subject, and its relevance to the situation today….
The public pension fund system is approaching apocalypse. PERA backed off but ignoring the obvious problem will not make it go away. Every public pension fund in the country is catastrophically underfunded, especially if strict mark-to-market of the illiquid assets were applied. Illinois has been playing funding games for a few years to keep its pension fund solvent.
In Kentucky, where the public pension fund is on the verge of collapse, teachers are demanding a State bailout. As the world begins its next adventure in financial chaos and rolls over to expose its soft underbelly of lies and deceit that have been perpetrated on the public, those that see the truth have been warning the people once again.
You can give people the truth but you cannot make them believe it. That is for them to come to grips with. Trade wars are usually bad for all parties in the end but between the beginning and the end there can be some surprising developments. Human actions and delusions on the part of the public can produce strange results at times.
All of our systems are based on trust. When that trust is lost, everything will come crashing down. Until then, things will go on. If you want to make 10 times your money, look at bank stocks. Our specialty is in natural resource stocks and making bets on assets that other investors want nothing to do with. I know this because I heard E. It was one of the best presentations I heard all week. After remaining relatively unknown during the course of his lifetime, Minsky really came to fame in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis as his hypothesis helped to explain what left most economists baffled: His ambition is not global hegemony or European conquest.
Putin seeks what Russia has always sought: In Syria, Russia has the warm water port of Tartus — which is important when you consider that most Russian ports are ice-bound for months of the year. It is strategic depth — the capacity to suffer massive invasions and still survive due to an ability to retreat to a core position and stretch enemy supply lines — that enabled Russia to defeat both Napoleon and Hitler.
Putin also wants the modicum of respect that would normally accompany that geostrategic goal. Record student loan balances? Trillion dollar credit card debt?
Six tech stocks dominating the Nasdaq? Subprime auto loans at record levels? Oh wait, those are back too, just under a different name:. They were blamed for the biggest financial disaster in a century. Subprime mortgages — home loans to borrowers with sketchy credit who put little to no skin in the game. Our analysis continues today with this research of a potential Short Squeeze in the SPX and other broader markets. As you are probably well aware, we have been nailing the markets with our detailed analysis for quite a while.
Our Advanced Analytical tools have called nearly every move. Nearly two weeks ago we called a massive market bottom to form in the US markets — well before just about anyone else even saw a bottom formation.
Today, we are calling the potential for a massive upside breakout move on what we believe is a massive Short Squeeze position just above resistance in the SPX.
Take a look at these charts. The stock market continued its yo-yo ways on Friday. The Nasdaq also plunged, dropping points. Well, now even Pres. Trump has said investors may see some short-term pain in the stock market. Recent geopolitical developments have led me to raise my probabilities of trade and other types of wars, such as capital wars, cyber wars and possibly even shooting wars.
There are four major factors driving the market. The factors are growth, trade wars, geopolitics and regulation of technology. Each of the four factors has its own internal contradictions, in effect a binary outcome for each.
No wonder the market acts confused. They are also anticipating inflation due to strong job creation, rising labor force participation and a low unemployment rate. KR - European 3. KT - Coffee Futures. LC - Live Cattle Futures. LC - Live Cattle Options. LN - Lean Hog Futures. LN - Lean Hog Options. LO - Crude Oil Options.
MP - Mexican Peso Futures. MP - Mexican Peso Options. NK - Nikkei Options. NQ - E-mini Nasdaq Futures. NQ - E-mini Nasdaq Options. OG - Gold Options. PA - Palladium Futures. PL - Platinum Futures. PO - Platinum Option. PZ - Polish Zloty Futures. PZ - Polish Zloty Options. Q6 - European 3.
QC - E-mini Copper Futures. QI - E-mini Silver Futures. QO - E-mini Gold Futures. RB - Spot Cheese Barrels. RU - Russian Ruble Futures. RU - Russian Ruble Options. SE - Swedish Krona Futures.
SF - Swiss Franc Futures. SI - Silver Futures. SO - Silver Options. TN - Ultra Year U. TT - Cotton Futures. TU - Gasoil 0. TW - Gasoil 0. UI - European 3. UN - Norwegian Krone Futures. UT - Gulf Coast No.
UV - European 3. VK - New York Harbor 1. VL - Gasoil 0. Gulf Coast Jet Platts Futures. WQ - Gasoil 0. X6 - Gasoil 0. YC - Mini-Corn Futures. YK - Mini Soybean Futures. YV - Mars Argus vs. YX - Mars Argus vs.
Z0 - Singapore Jet Kerosene Platts vs. Z4 - Gasoil 0. Z5 - Gasoil 0. ALI - Aluminum Futures. BTC - Bitcoin Futures. Dated Brent Platts Futures. DGH - Singapore Gasoil 0. EFF - European 3. EMW - European 3. FOC - NY 3. FOR - Daily European 3. LED - Lead Futures. Brent Crude Oil Financial Futures. MAB - Mars Argus vs. Brent Calendar Month Futures. MBM - Mars Argus vs. Brent Trade Month Futures. MDM - Mars Argus vs. Dubai Platts Calendar Month Futures. MDR - Mars Argus vs. Dubai Platts Trade Month Futures.
MEF - Micro European 3. MFR - Mini 3. MGB - Mini Gasoil 0. MGF - Mini Gasoil 0. MMF - Mini 3. Low Sulphur Gasoil 1,bbl Futures. NYT - NY 3. PAO - Palladium Options.
Gasoil ppm Platts Futures. Singapore Mogas 92 Unleaded Platts Futures. Singapore Gasoil ppm Platts Futures. TN1 - Ultra Year U. Treasury Note Weekly Options Wk 1. TN2 - Ultra Year U. Treasury Note Weekly Options Wk 2. TN3 - Ultra Year U.
Treasury Note Weekly Options Wk 3. TN4 - Ultra Year U. Treasury Note Weekly Options Wk 4. TN5 - Ultra Year U. Treasury Note Weekly Options Wk 5.